Will European Gas Prices Fall in 2026?

Content Manager

Cormac is Selectra.ie's energy expert along with being the chief content and editorial manager for the website. His aim is to help find the best deal for you and your home energy needs so that you save money on your annual bills. His knowledge and experience of the Irish energy market allows him to offer the best advice and insight into current prices, emerging trends and overall energy saving tips.

Updated on 15/01/2026

min reading

At the start of 2026, the average price for natural gas in Europe has stabilized at €0.1143 per kWh, showing a slight decrease from the 2025 peaks. While prices have eased from the height of the energy crisis, they remain nearly double the levels seen at the start of 2022. Natural gas prices in Ireland continue to significantly exceed the EU average, currently sitting at €0.1371 per kWh.

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What are European Gas Prices in 2026?

At the start of 2026, the average price for natural gas in Europe was €0.1143 per kWh. While this reflects a stabilizing market, costs remain high compared to historical averages.

This sustained high pricing is a legacy of the energy crisis sparked in 2022, which forced a permanent shift in how Europe sources its energy, moving away from pipeline gas toward global LNG markets.

Across the 27 EU member states, natural gas is most expensive in Sweden at €0.2130 per kWh, while Hungary remains the cheapest at €0.0307 per kWh due to ongoing state subsidies.

Average Gas Prices Ireland per kWh

Cents/kWh

Last Updated: January 2026
Source: Eurostat

Will European Gas Prices Fall in 2026?

Based on current forecasts for 2026, European gas prices are expected to undergo a period of cautious stabilization rather than a dramatic decrease.

While the extreme volatility of previous years has subsided, several factors keep the floor high.

Some forecasts suggest that while wholesale costs are lower, retail prices will remain sticky throughout 2026.

Here's a breakdown of the key factors for 2026:

Moderate Gas Reserves: Europe entered 2026 with storage levels at approximately 55% following a cold start to January. This necessitates steady buying throughout the spring to reach the 90% target for next winter.
Established Loss of Russian Transit: The total cessation of Russian gas through Ukraine (which occurred Jan 1, 2025) is now a permanent market reality. Europe has successfully pivoted, but the replacement gas is inherently more expensive.
Expanding LNG Infrastructure: Global LNG supply is set to increase in late 2026 as new projects in the US and Qatar come online, which may provide more significant downward pressure toward the end of the year.
Industrial Demand Recovery: As prices stabilize, industrial gas demand in Europe is beginning to recover, which keeps competition for supply high and prevents prices from dropping to pre-2021 levels.
Geopolitical Risk: Security of infrastructure remains a primary concern for market analysts, with any disruption to North Sea or Mediterranean pipelines causing immediate price spikes.
Climate Extremes: 2026 projections suggest a high likelihood of summer heatwaves, which increases gas demand for electricity to power air conditioning units.
Renewable Integration: While wind and solar capacity is at record highs, gas remains the primary "back-up" fuel during periods of low generation, maintaining its influence over the total energy price.

As Europe enters summer, demand for gas for home heating will likely fall, representing a good time to switch gas provider and reduce costs for the upcoming winter.

What Caused European Gas Prices To Rise?

The sustained high costs in 2026 are the result of a structural shift in the energy market. The events of the last few years have moved Europe from a pipeline-reliant economy to one competing on the global sea-borne market.

These factors have reshaped the economic landscape of the continent:

The Shift Away from Russian Pipeline Gas

The weaponization of energy by Russia in 2022 led to a near-total decoupling of European energy from Russian supply. While this has improved energy security, it replaced cheap, fixed-route gas with flexible but expensive Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

Global Market Integration

Europe now competes directly with Asian markets for every cargo of LNG. This means that events in the Pacific or shifts in the Chinese economy now have a direct and immediate impact on the gas bills of European households.

Transition and Infrastructure Costs

Building the necessary terminals to receive LNG and upgrading the grid to handle more volatile energy flows has required massive investment. These infrastructure costs are often passed through to the consumer via network charges.

Will Gas Prices in Ireland Increase in 2026?

In 2026, natural gas in Ireland costs €0.1371 per kWh, making Ireland the fourth most expensive country in the EU.

The cost of living crisis in Ireland remains a significant concern, especially as Budget 2026 ended the universal energy credits that previously shielded households from the full impact of these prices.

Below, you'll find a graph outlining the price evolution of natural gas in Ireland over the last 5 years.

Gas Prices EU 2026

Eur/kWh

Last Updated: January 2026
Source: Eurostat

While wholesale prices are stable, consumer gas bills in Ireland are expected to rise slightly in 2026 due to domestic policy changes and tax increases.

Here's a breakdown of why:

End of Universal Supports: The €125/€150 universal electricity and gas credits seen in previous years were not renewed for the 2025/26 winter, meaning most households will feel a direct increase in their out-of-pocket expenses.
Carbon Tax Increases: The carbon tax rose to €71.00 per tonne as part of the 2026 fiscal cycle. This increase takes effect for gas consumers on May 1st, 2026, adding approximately €19 to the average annual bill.
9% VAT Extension: While the government has extended the reduced 9% VAT rate on energy until 2030, this merely prevents a further increase rather than providing a new discount.
Network Charges: CRU-approved increases in network charges to fund grid stabilization are being applied in 2026, which suppliers are passing on to customers.
Electricity Generation: With gas still accounting for nearly 50% of Ireland's electricity generation in early 2026, high gas unit rates continue to drive up electricity prices simultaneously.
Corrib Depletion: As the Corrib gas field continues its natural decline, Ireland’s reliance on the expensive UK interconnector grows, leaving the market susceptible to UK wholesale volatility.

What is the Average Gas Bill in Ireland?

The average annual gas bill in Ireland in 2026 is €1,571.04 on a standard meter, excluding any targeted supports like the Fuel Allowance.

Why Is Gas So Expensive in Ireland? Read our guide to Irish gas prices and find out why homeowners here are paying some of the highest prices in the EU.

What Can I Do To Lower My Gas Bills?

With the expiration of universal government credits in 2026, proactive energy management is now the most effective way to lower your gas bills.

🔥 How To Lower Your Gas Bills
Compare gas providers every 12 months, as many "new customer" discounts expire, moving you to much higher standard rates.
Invest in a non-gas fuelled means of heating your home, such as a heat pump, using expanded 2026 SEAI grants.
Improve the insulation of your home—attic insulation remains the highest-ROI upgrade for 2026.
Invest in solar panels to reduce your boiler's water-heating workload during the summer.
Check eligibility for the expanded 2026 Fuel Allowance if you are on the Working Family Payment.