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Cormac is Selectra.ie's energy expert along with being the chief content and editorial manager for the website. His aim is to help find the best deal for you and your home energy needs so that you save money on your annual bills. His knowledge and experience of the Irish energy market allows him to offer the best advice and insight into current prices, emerging trends and overall energy saving tips.
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At the start of 2025, the average price for natural gas in Europe was €0.1233 per kWh, having almost doubled since the beginning of 2022. This is an increase of over 1 cent per kWh from the average price in 2024. Prices were expected to fall in 2025 due in part to the diversification of gas sources along with the increased use of renewable energy across the continent, reducing demand. Natural gas prices in Ireland remain high at €0.1347 per kWh and well above the EU average.
What are European Gas Prices in 2025?
At the start of 2025, the average price for natural gas in Europe was €0.1233 per kWh, having almost doubled since the beginning of 2022.
This was largely due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 which sparked an energy crisis across Europe.
Across the 27 EU member states, natural gas is most expensive in Swedenat €0.1893 per kWh, while Hungary is the cheapest at €0.0315 per kWh.
Based on current forecasts and expert analyses, European gas prices are unlikely to come down significantly in 2025 and are generally expected to remain elevated compared to pre-2022 levels.
Some forecasts even suggest prices could be higher in 2025 than in parts of 2024.
Here's a breakdown of the key factors:
Low Gas Reserves: Europe is entering 2025 with gas reserves significantly below usual levels. This means a greater need to fill storage facilities, which will drive demand.
End of Russian Gas Transit via Ukraine: As of January 1, 2025, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine ceased, removing a historical supply source for Europe. While this accounted for a smaller percentage of supply recently, it still contributes to a tighter market.
Tight LNG Market: Europe has heavily relied on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to replace Russian pipeline gas. However, the global LNG market is expected to remain tight in 2025, with increasing demand from Asia creating strong competition for cargoes. While global LNG production is set to increase, it may not be enough to fully compensate for the loss of Russian supply.
High Storage Injection Needs: With lower starting storage levels, Europe will need to inject significant volumes of gas throughout the summer to prepare for the 2025-2026 winter, putting upward pressure on prices.
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical instability can always lead to supply disruptions and increased price volatility.
Weather Conditions: A colder-than-expected winter or hot summer (increasing demand for air conditioning, leading to higher electricity generation from gas) could further strain supplies and push prices up.
Reduced Renewable Energy Production: Periods of low wind or solar power generation necessitate increased reliance on gas-fired power plants, boosting demand.
As Europe enters summer, demand for gas for home heating will likely fall, representing a good time to switch gas provider and reduce costs for the upcoming winter.
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What Caused European Gas Prices To Rise?
Perhaps the most important causes have been the unprecedented events that have caused the gas markets to react unfavourably and pushed energy costs up and up.
These events have been responsible for much of the economic issues that Europe has been experiencing since 2020, but they have had a unique impact on the gas markets:
Russia's Weaponisation of Energy and the War in Ukraine
When Russia strategically curtailed gas supplies to Europe and then launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it directly weaponised energy against the continent.
This action led to an almost complete cut-off of pipeline gas supplies through major routes, removing a critical and previously reliable source which forced Europe to find immediate, expensive alternatives.
Pre-existing Market Conditions
Prior to the invasion, the market was already fragile due to surging global demand as economies recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Europe's gas storage levels were unusually low entering late 2021, and this insufficient replenishment, coupled with strong competition for global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from Asia, created a highly susceptible market prone to price spikes.
Infrastructure and System Vulnerabilities
Europe's historical reliance on abundant and relatively cheap pipeline gas from Russia meant that its energy infrastructure and diversified supply routes were not sufficiently developed to cope with such a dramatic and sudden loss of its primary supplier.
his systemic vulnerability amplified the impact of supply cuts, as adapting quickly to new energy flows proved challenging.
Broader Global Factors
The global LNG market, characterised by its inherent volatility as cargoes can be redirected to the highest bidder, played a significant role. This created intense price competition for available supplies.
Furthermore, periods of low renewable energy generation and other geopolitical tensions beyond Ukraine contributed to market anxiety, adding upward pressure on prices.
Will Gas Prices in Ireland Increase in 2025?
In 2025, natural gas in Ireland costs €0.1347 per kWh, making Ireland the fifth most expensive country in the EU for gas.
It's highly likely that gas prices in Ireland will remain high and could even see increases in 2025, primarily due to the same underlying factors affecting the broader European market, along with some specific Irish considerations.
Here's a breakdown of why:
Reliance on Imports: Ireland is heavily dependent on imported natural gas, primarily from the UK via interconnectors. This means Irish prices are directly influenced by wholesale gas prices in the UK and wider European markets, which are expected to remain elevated.
Wholesale Market Volatility: The European wholesale gas market is anticipated to stay tight in 2025. Factors like low gas reserves, the end of the Russian gas transit via Ukraine, and a competitive global LNG market will keep prices volatile and generally higher than historical averages.
Carbon Tax Increases: The Irish government has a policy of increasing the carbon tax, which directly impacts the cost of gas for consumers. A carbon tax increase came into effect on May 1st, 2025, adding approximately €17 to yearly gas bills for an average household. Further increases are planned towards a target of €100 per tonne by 2030.
Network Charges and Supplier Costs: Beyond the wholesale cost of gas, consumer bills also include network charges (for transmission and distribution) and supplier margins. These can also contribute to overall price increases. For example, some suppliers have already announced price hikes in early 2025 due to network charges and rising wholesale costs.
Electricity Generation Dependence: A significant portion of Ireland's electricity (around 42% in April 2025, and often around 50% annually) is generated from gas-fired power plants. This means that high gas prices directly translate to higher electricity prices, which then indirectly affect the overall cost of living and can influence demand for alternative heating methods.
Limited Domestic Production: While the Corrib gas field contributes to Ireland's gas supply, it's forecast to meet only about 23% of demand in summer 2025, meaning the majority still needs to be imported.
Why Is Gas So Expensive in Ireland? Read our guide to Irish gas prices and find out why homeowners here are paying some of the highest prices in the EU.
What Can I Do To Lower My Gas Bills?
Given that gas prices remain high in Ireland and with no significant decrease likely to happen this year, there are some steps you can take to try to lower your gas bills.
Cormac is Selectra.ie's energy expert along with being the chief content and editorial manager for the website. His aim is to help find the best deal for you and your home energy needs so that you save money on your annual bills. His knowledge and experience of the Irish energy market allows him to offer the best advice and insight into current prices, emerging trends and overall energy saving tips.
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